Steelers at Patriots Pittsburgh’s front is the hinge. Last week they allowed a late 19-yard touchdown but still kept the ground game to 117.0 yards. That is the template again. Win first contact, set edges, and make Drake May throw against pressure looks if Rhamondre Stevenson cannot get downhill. New England must clean up early downs and find 4.5 yards/play on the ground or the pass game gets squeezed into third and long. Pittsburgh’s own third down efficiency has to rise so drives do not stall at midfield. Aaron Rodgers has spread touchdowns to five targets with only two interceptions and the shot plays are there if the run action holds. Field position and one takeaway likely swing it. Key stat lines: PIT rush allowed 3.9 yards/play, NE penalties target <45 yards, third down must hit 42%+. Rams at Eagles Short yardage and time control sit center stage. Philadelphia leaned on the tush push multiple times in a 20-17 win and is living run heavy while Jalen Hurts steers drives into scoring position. The formula protects time of possession and trims risk. Los Angeles counters with Matthew Stafford in rhythm and a balanced plan behind Kyren Williams. If the Rams land early timing throws and create two chunk gains each half, they can flip the script on the road. If Philly keeps it to third and 1, the game tilts green. Key stat lines: PHI offense target 5.2 yards/play, LAR pass game target 7.5 yards/play, red zone TD rate decides it. Cardinals at 49ers This rivalry swings in streaks. Arizona swept last year, including a double-digit comeback led by Kyler Murray. San Francisco’s identity remains physical even after a frustrating week that put Brock Purdy’s health in focus and brought Mac Jones in to steady a win. Rookie Ricky Pearsall has worked the 8–12 yard windows, a tough cover on timing routes. The Cardinals’ rush defense can force long thirds if it wins first contact; that is how you drag it to a final-possession finish in Santa Clara. Quarterback edge in second-reaction moments still leans Murray. Two explosives each half keep the road upset live. Key stat lines: ARI rush allowed target 3.8 yards/play, SF success rate on early downs >50%, explosives ≥4 plays of 20+. Giants at Chiefs New York has to flush a wild fourth quarter versus Dallas that morphed into a slow overtime ending in an interception and a Cowboys field goal. One hundred sixty penalty yards is untenable; clean operation comes first. Kansas City brings similar urgency after a frustrating Super Bowl rematch and will lean into tempo, quick answers, and red zone precision to avoid 0-3. Patrick Mahomes has not dropped three straight since Texas Tech in 2016, which frames the moment. Special teams and one short-field takeaway could extend the Giants into the fourth, but if KC plays a clean sheet the ceiling shows. Key stat lines: NYG penalties target <45 yards, KC third down ≥45%, NYG rush offense ≥4.4 yards/play to balance. Lions at Ravens (Monday Night) The last meeting in Baltimore ended 38-6. Jared Goff enters hot off another NFC Offensive Player of the Week and a skill group that can gash in space: Jahmyr Gibbs on edges, David Montgomery between the tackles, Amon-Ra St. Brown on option routes. Detroit can score in flurries if protection holds. Baltimore counters with balance and a pass defense holding opponents near 6.5 yards/play while Derrick Henry’s presence forces honest boxes and wears fronts down late. Expect pace swings and explosives on both sides; at home, the Ravens’ run game plus coverage integrity is the tiebreaker. Over 50.0 feels live. Key stat lines: BAL pass D ~6.5 yards/play, DET explosives ≥6 plays of 15+, red zone TD rate >60% wins it.